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Goodbye Jesus

Hey Folks - How Do You Like Those Rising Gas Prices?


raoul

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I just watched the first episode of Revolution. Bad time to think about oil running out.

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This won't be popular, but in an era where burning fossil fuel is likely causing environmental damage and where global demand and a limited supply is surely leading to increasing global conflicts, I would like to see prices much, much higher so that we are forced to seek alternatives and find better ways to use less by developing mass transit systems, et al.

 

Regarding speculation, it works both ways as we saw with oil prices yesterday, which took a 3% hit as speculators had their guts handed to them by realists.

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We may run out of oil some day, but it won't be during our lifetimes. And while I don't necessarily disagree that we're doing vast environmental damage by burning it- I don't expect our consumption to slow until we've used most of it up. Hans made a great observation once when he said that civilizations tend to run full-throttle in one direction until they hit a wall. Well we're running full-throttle. But IMO that wall is still many miles away.

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You may be right, but that seems like you're basing this on faith to at least a degree Rank. We have already been involved in global conflicts over the stuff for 30-40 years now and now global demand is dramatically on the rise with the Asian tigers seeing economic growth. Also, there is just no way we can pump billions of tons of latent carbon into the atmosphere every year and not have an impact on our environment.

 

I didn't call for anything extreme here. Europe has been forced to do what I suggested would be good for the US decades ago.

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This won't be popular, but in an era where burning fossil fuel is likely causing environmental damage and where global demand and a limited supply is surely leading to increasing global conflicts, I would like to see prices much, much higher so that we are forced to seek alternatives and find better ways to use less by developing mass transit systems, et al.

 

Regarding speculation, it works both ways as we saw with oil prices yesterday, which took a 3% hit as speculators had their guts handed to them by realists.

I wouldn't call a 3% hit having one's guts handed to them especially since it's probably overpriced by 50% or more. However you do make a good point about it needing to be higher because of the reality we're in. And this idea of higher prices isn't anything new since Europe and other continents have had to pay higher prices for decades which has made them adapt by using alternate sources for heating and other things to offset the higher prices.

 

When I was stationed in Germany during the 60s I saw something that struck me as very odd - most cars were compacts except for the occasional Mercedes. Coming back to the US, everybody was driving monster 8 cyl. Chevies, Fords, Chryslers. I often thought 'what makes us so special that we can drive these monsters while the rest of the world drives compacts?'

 

It must have influenced me because except for my very first car, a 60 Chevy Impala, everything after was a compact. This included 2 VW beetles I drove in the late 60s, early 70s when gas prices were below a buck. I guess I was ahead of the curve. We now drive Honda Civics which seem like spacious sedans compared to our older compacts.

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This won't be popular, but in an era where burning fossil fuel is likely causing environmental damage and where global demand and a limited supply is surely leading to increasing global conflicts, I would like to see prices much, much higher so that we are forced to seek alternatives and find better ways to use less by developing mass transit systems, et al.

 

Regarding speculation, it works both ways as we saw with oil prices yesterday, which took a 3% hit as speculators had their guts handed to them by realists.

I wouldn't call a 3% hit having one's guts handed to them especially since it's probably overpriced by 50% or more. However you do make a good point about it needing to be higher because of the reality we're in. And this idea of higher prices isn't anything new since Europe and other continents have had to pay higher prices for decades which has made them adapt by using alternate sources for heating and other things to offset the higher prices.

 

When I was stationed in Germany during the 60s I saw something that struck me as very odd - most cars were compacts except for the occasional Mercedes. Coming back to the US, everybody was driving monster 8 cyl. Chevies, Fords, Chryslers. I often thought 'what makes us so special that we can drive these monsters while the rest of the world drives compacts?'

 

It must have influenced me because except for my very first car, a 60 Chevy Impala, everything after was a compact. This included 2 VW beetles I drove in the late 60s, early 70s when gas prices were below a buck. I guess I was ahead of the curve. We now drive Honda Civics which seem like spacious sedans compared to our older compacts.

 

My wife is the poster child for the problem. We just bought a new car a week ago and when doing her research online you know what the first thing was that she looked at? Whether it was a V6 or not (compared to 4 banger, since I forbade her from getting a V8) and how many horsepower it had. Forget the power to weight ratio and how well the car actually handled and drove, the first thing she went for was a number on paper. I begged her to just drive cars forgetting about what the actual numbers were. Interestingly, she not only happily settled for a 4 cylinder, the car she picked out had lowest HP rating of any vehicle we drove. The main reason was because its engine (the Camry) sounded 'deeper' than the other 4 cylindersrolleyes.gif .

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You may be right, but that seems like you're basing this on faith to at least a degree Rank. We have already been involved in global conflicts over the stuff for 30-40 years now and now global demand is dramatically on the rise with the Asian tigers seeing economic growth. Also, there is just no way we can pump billions of tons of latent carbon into the atmosphere every year and not have an impact on our environment.

 

I didn't call for anything extreme here. Europe has been forced to do what I suggested would be good for the US decades ago.

 

I don't disagree with you about the potential environmental impact we're having. I question the certainty with which the notion of mmgw is being offered, but I think it's ridiculous to deny that we are having SOME impact on the climate- and quite possibly a significant impact.

 

But I see ZERO evidence that the oil is running out.

 

And even if we could get our political act together and start mandating cuts to fossil fuel consumption- it would be little more than a symbolic gesture in the face of the remaining majority of humans who would continue increasing their consumption. And in many cases I couldn't blame them for doing so. Lots of the developing world has much more immediate concerns than some mmgw that may or may not happen in the future.

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This won't be popular, but in an era where burning fossil fuel is likely causing environmental damage and where global demand and a limited supply is surely leading to increasing global conflicts, I would like to see prices much, much higher so that we are forced to seek alternatives and find better ways to use less by developing mass transit systems, et al.

 

Regarding speculation, it works both ways as we saw with oil prices yesterday, which took a 3% hit as speculators had their guts handed to them by realists.

I wouldn't call a 3% hit having one's guts handed to them especially since it's probably overpriced by 50% or more. However you do make a good point about it needing to be higher because of the reality we're in. And this idea of higher prices isn't anything new since Europe and other continents have had to pay higher prices for decades which has made them adapt by using alternate sources for heating and other things to offset the higher prices.

 

When I was stationed in Germany during the 60s I saw something that struck me as very odd - most cars were compacts except for the occasional Mercedes. Coming back to the US, everybody was driving monster 8 cyl. Chevies, Fords, Chryslers. I often thought 'what makes us so special that we can drive these monsters while the rest of the world drives compacts?'

 

It must have influenced me because except for my very first car, a 60 Chevy Impala, everything after was a compact. This included 2 VW beetles I drove in the late 60s, early 70s when gas prices were below a buck. I guess I was ahead of the curve. We now drive Honda Civics which seem like spacious sedans compared to our older compacts.

 

My wife is the poster child for the problem. We just bought a new car a week ago and when doing her research online you know what the first thing was that she looked at? Whether it was a V6 or not (compared to 4 banger, since I forbade her from getting a V8) and how many horsepower it had. Forget the power to weight ratio and how well the car actually handled and drove, the first thing she went for was a number on paper. I begged her to just drive cars forgetting about what the actual numbers were. Interestingly, she not only happily settled for a 4 cylinder, the car she picked out had lowest HP rating of any vehicle we drove. The main reason was because its engine (the Camry) sounded 'deeper' than the other 4 cylindersrolleyes.gif .

that's a very good buy (Camry). I've had Honda VTEC 4 cyl. cars and they seem to be as powerful as the old V6 engines in Fords but the gas mileage is excellent, over 30 mpg. The Camrys made are on a similar vein I think so she made an excellent choice in my view. Your other comment about zero evidence for oil running out is also right on! I don't think we've barely scratched the oil reserves out there. They just have to keep the supplies limited for, of course, prices to stay high.
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This won't be popular, but in an era where burning fossil fuel is likely causing environmental damage and where global demand and a limited supply is surely leading to increasing global conflicts, I would like to see prices much, much higher so that we are forced to seek alternatives and find better ways to use less by developing mass transit systems, et al.

 

Regarding speculation, it works both ways as we saw with oil prices yesterday, which took a 3% hit as speculators had their guts handed to them by realists.

I wouldn't call a 3% hit having one's guts handed to them especially since it's probably overpriced by 50% or more. However you do make a good point about it needing to be higher because of the reality we're in. And this idea of higher prices isn't anything new since Europe and other continents have had to pay higher prices for decades which has made them adapt by using alternate sources for heating and other things to offset the higher prices.

 

When I was stationed in Germany during the 60s I saw something that struck me as very odd - most cars were compacts except for the occasional Mercedes. Coming back to the US, everybody was driving monster 8 cyl. Chevies, Fords, Chryslers. I often thought 'what makes us so special that we can drive these monsters while the rest of the world drives compacts?'

 

It must have influenced me because except for my very first car, a 60 Chevy Impala, everything after was a compact. This included 2 VW beetles I drove in the late 60s, early 70s when gas prices were below a buck. I guess I was ahead of the curve. We now drive Honda Civics which seem like spacious sedans compared to our older compacts.

 

My wife is the poster child for the problem. We just bought a new car a week ago and when doing her research online you know what the first thing was that she looked at? Whether it was a V6 or not (compared to 4 banger, since I forbade her from getting a V8) and how many horsepower it had. Forget the power to weight ratio and how well the car actually handled and drove, the first thing she went for was a number on paper. I begged her to just drive cars forgetting about what the actual numbers were. Interestingly, she not only happily settled for a 4 cylinder, the car she picked out had lowest HP rating of any vehicle we drove. The main reason was because its engine (the Camry) sounded 'deeper' than the other 4 cylindersrolleyes.gif .

that's a very good buy (Camry). I've had Honda VTEC 4 cyl. cars and they seem to be as powerful as the old V6 engines in Fords but the gas mileage is excellent, over 30 mpg. The Camrys made are on a similar vein I think so she made an excellent choice in my view. Your other comment about zero evidence for oil running out is also right on! I don't think we've barely scratched the oil reserves out there. They just have to keep the supplies limited for, of course, prices to stay high.

 

Thanks, but it was Rank who made the comment about oil not running out. Sorry I disagree with that. I don't have time now but will try to find you some evidence of that this afternoon.

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And even if we could get our political act together and start mandating cuts to fossil fuel consumption-

 

Which is why I said I embrace higher prices; let the market do for us what we don't have the political will to do.

 

As for oil running out. I have no predictions or any level of expertise on that subject. But it does stand to reason that when you exponentially ramp up demand, estimates are going to get thrown out the window pretty fast. I've seen the growth in Russia, India and Thailand first hand and I've read about what's happening in China. We live in a rapidly changing world with countries that formerly had many 3rd world conditions now developing consumer bases that consume like Americans. That's got to be a game changer on some level.

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The stuff won't last forever. Sooner or later, we run out. Before that it goes for higher and higher prices. I just pay what they charge and worry about other stuff.

 

I sure hope someone comes up with an alternative; otherwise, we have built up an unsustainable infrastructure. Our children's children will be screwed as shit when they have to ride bicycles to work and keep a garden and who knows what to have even half the comfort we have.

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This is why my brother, husband, FIL, and I are all working on converting diesel vehicles to run on vegetable oil.

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I sure hope someone comes up with an alternative; otherwise, we have built up an unsustainable infrastructure.

There are alternatives. The Wankel Rotary Engine was modified to use alternative fuels in the 1984 for US Marine Corps. Stirling engines use alternative fuels, invented in 1816.

 

And there are engines that are more efficient than current ones too, like the MYT engine (if I understand it right).

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I sure hope someone comes up with an alternative; otherwise, we have built up an unsustainable infrastructure.

There are alternatives. The Wankel Rotary Engine was modified to use alternative fuels in the 1984 for US Marine Corps. Stirling engines use alternative fuels, invented in 1816.

 

And there are engines that are more efficient than current ones too, like the MYT engine (if I understand it right).

 

As far as that goes, algae can be genetically modified to produce pretty much any hydrocarbon you want. Including what is essentially gasoline. Or BETTER than gasoline if that's what you set them up to do.

 

Unfortunately we've wasted huge sums of 'biofuel' money and political capital on ethanol- which is little more than a highly inefficient gov't subsidy program.

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