Climate Change Lecture by Dr Jim White

[LogicalFallacy]

 

He went into some things I didn't know. Very interesting.

 

 

[Eowynesque]

Interesting especially with that audience. The arctic sea ice graphic was disturbing. All of it was. Too bad there isn't a big fix--a science bandaid. I don't expect us to make big changes in behavior until thing s get much worse. I'm generally not this pessimistic, but like he said, people don't want to be told they have limits

 

[disillusioned]

Interesting video, to be sure.

Nothing substantial that was new for me. Just a good reinforcement of some of the reasons why I'm fairly pessimistic about the future of our species in general.

Just about everyone I know will happily admit that our current way of life is unsustainable. But a thing that I don't think many people really appreciate is this: physically, when things are unsustainable, they stop.

That is a sobering thought.

[Joshpantera]

One thing I noticed this year is that Colorado State pulled back on their hurricane forecast, because of cooler than average sea temps this season. 

 

I was recently going over Patrick Moore's analysis about climate alarm. From his ecologist perspective. Several interesting points raised. @Geezer some of this conversation touches on points you've raised recently: 

 

 

[Joshpantera]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-21-august-no-atlantic-hurricanes-2018-rarity

[LogicalFallacy]

Meanwhile on the other side of the US a Cat 4 Hurricane (Lane) is about to smack Hawaii on the upside. Another rare phenomenon.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1007544/hurricane-lane-latest-path-big-island-kilauea-NOAA-hurricane-tracker

 

What to make of all this? 

 

(Oh shoot, I just realised NOAA is tracking this hurricane. It's probably fake. They've doctored the pics from space.... wait no its all a hoax. There is no space station. Someone painted the hurricane pics. Hurricanes are not real. I've never seen one. I don't care if you have - your personal experience is not reliable. But mine is. And I haven't seen one with my own eyes. Therefore hurricanes do not exist. I am going to write a thesis on the non existence of hurricanes.)  

 

 

PS... sorry couldn't resist after reading some 'enlightening' comments recently.  

[Geezer]

When something becomes a tradition in religion it becomes sacred and once it reaches that status it becomes virtually impossible to change it or do away with it.

 

The same is true for science and history. Once a consensus is reached it becomes sacred. And once that happens no amount of evidence will likely change its status. And those that challenge a consensus, or a tradition, will pay a heavy price as a lesson to others not to challenge authority. 

 

 

[florduh]

Political dogma is stronger than religious dogma. When virtually all studies agree, when real world consequences are happening daily, even then some will find a way to discredit the obvious conclusion if it is not in line with the entrenched political stance. So let us work to hasten the demise of our planet. It won't become critical in my lifetime, so I'll let your children and grandchildren deal with it. Bring back coal!!! Oil companies need your money!!! Who needs pristine beaches and clean water anyway? 

 

[RealityCheck]

Humans are not wired to concern themselves with threats decades down the road, but rather their immediate needs.  How many of you are willing to give up your carbon guzzling lifestyles?  How many of you are going to stop driving cars or use electricity?  What is the carbon footprint of that packaged you overnighted from Amazon?  How much oil did it take to mine, create, and ship every component that goes into the device you're typing this in?  I'm guessing the answers do not align with what you are preaching.

And even if we cripple our lifestyles and economy by suddenly giving up fossil fules, do you think 3rd word countries will follow suit?  The US and other developed nations carbon footprint is decreasing while that of developing nations is rising (with China being the 800 pound gorilla in the room).  https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?end=2014&start=1960&view=chart Would we be in a moral position to tell them to stop using coal and petroleum to raise their citizens living standards out of poverty?

[LogicalFallacy]

1 hour ago, Geezer said:

When something becomes a tradition in religion it becomes sacred and once it reaches that status it becomes virtually impossible to change it or do away with it.

 

The same is true for science and history. Once a consensus is reached it becomes sacred. And once that happens no amount of evidence will likely change its status. And those that challenge a consensus, or a tradition, will pay a heavy price as a lesson to others not to challenge authority. 

 

 

Except religion is reached through men's ideas with no regard to reality data evidence or review. Science is subject to these things. Now you are quite free to deny the consensus of scientific discovery under the guise that it's now a corrupt organisation but reality doesn't give a shit about what you think. 

 

I have some more nuanced thoughts on this later. On cell atm so can't elaborate clearly. 

[Joshpantera]

2 hours ago, LogicalFallacy said:

Meanwhile on the other side of the US a Cat 4 Hurricane (Lane) is about to smack Hawaii on the upside. Another rare phenomenon.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1007544/hurricane-lane-latest-path-big-island-kilauea-NOAA-hurricane-tracker

 

What to make of all this? 

 

(Oh shoot, I just realised NOAA is tracking this hurricane. It's probably fake. They've doctored the pics from space.... wait no its all a hoax. There is no space station. Someone painted the hurricane pics. Hurricanes are not real. I've never seen one. I don't care if you have - your personal experience is not reliable. But mine is. And I haven't seen one with my own eyes. Therefore hurricanes do not exist. I am going to write a thesis on the non existence of hurricanes.)  

 

 

PS... sorry couldn't resist after reading some 'enlightening' comments recently.  

 

The prophets of doom have been predicting higher and higher and higher than average hurricane seasons for years. Accept, these prophecies have all fallen as flat as Jesus 2nd coming. Last season the hype was that it was only going to get more intense, but then it didn't. The Colorado State video went on about rising sea temps, but instead what happened is that the Atlantic was cooler than average and they had to pull back their hurricane forecast for 2018. Then it became even more flaccid than what the pulled back predictions were suggesting. This has been the case for a long, long time, season after season. 

 

We're sitting around staring at Lake Atlantic!!!!!

 

I have a brand new custom surfboard coming out of the shop any day now and I'm not even going to get to try it out for gods sake!!!!

 

It's fucking late August already and no hurricanes, NO SWELL. 

 

These prophets of doom had better get their shit straight because I'm planning on riding out THE END OF THE WORLD in style!!!!!!!

[TruthSeeker0]

1 hour ago, Geezer said:

When something becomes a tradition in religion it becomes sacred and once it reaches that status it becomes virtually impossible to change it or do away with it.

 

The same is true for science and history. Once a consensus is reached it becomes sacred. And once that happens no amount of evidence will likely change its status. And those that challenge a consensus, or a tradition, will pay a heavy price as a lesson to others not to challenge authority. 

 

 

Oh come on Geezer, did you even watch the whole lecture? It was quite educative. It didn't appear as if Jim subscribes to a cult scientific following in regards to climate change. As he put it, you can't argue with physics. Physics ISNT a belief system, you can't CHOOSE whether you believe in it or not. Apples will fall from trees, so don't ask me if I believe the apple will fall, because it's the law of gravity that determines that, not my belief. Which is why he stated when people ask him if he believes in climate change, he tells  them to backtrack and change the question until it makes more sense.

 

The conclusion I've come to is that it's simple lack of education. We need to desperately raise the standards for that. Maybe that will help tackle the suspicion that seems to cloud people's minds in regards to the facts.

[TruthSeeker0]

1 minute ago, Joshpantera said:

 

The prophets of doom have been predicting higher and higher and higher than average hurricane seasons for years. Accept, these prophecies have all fallen as flat as Jesus 2nd coming. Last season the hype was that it was only going to get more intense, but then it didn't. The Colorado State video went on about rising sea temps, but instead what happened is that the Atlantic was cooler than average and they had to pull back their hurricane forecast for 2018. Then it became even more flaccid than what the pulled back predictions were suggesting. This has been the case for a long, long time, season after season. 

 

We're sitting around staring at Lake Atlantic!!!!!

 

I have brand new custom surfboard coming out of the shop any day now and I'm not even going to get to try it out for god sake!!!!

 

It's fucking late August already and NO SWELL. 

 

These prophets of doom had better get their shit straight because I'm planning on riding out THE END OF THE WORLD in style!!!!!!!

Watch the whole lecture, it's not only hurricanes that are being discussed. On the other hand, it appears selective sample sizes are being presented by some parties as the whole picture. The whole damn picture needs to be looked at, not selective parts of it.

[Geezer]

On July 31, 2018 at 9:15 PM, Joshpantera said:

One thing I noticed this year is that Colorado State pulled back on their hurricane forecast, because of cooler than average sea temps this season. 

 

I was recently going over Patrick Moore's analysis about climate alarm. From his ecologist perspective. Several interesting points raised. @Geezer some of this conversation touches on points you've raised recently: 

 

 

 

If Dr.Moore is correct, he has confirmed my suspicions about climate change as well as the reason there is a consensus about this issue among climate scientists. 

[Geezer]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! We must do something right now to save the planet for our children and grandchildren. Here's the problem. Even scientist don't all agree that the sky is falling. And if it is falling it isn't likely humans can stop it.

 

I'm 72 years old and someone has been screaming "The sky is falling", for as long as I can remember. It hasn't fallen yet, but if it does the last person on earth needs to turn the lights out before they expire. 

 

If climate change is going to destroy the earth I know for sure I can't stop it. And I'm pretty sure I won't live long enough to experience it. At my age I limit my worrying to things I can actually do something about. 

 

So, I'll let you younger folk worry about this pending catastrophe and figure out how to stop it, and I wish you all much success seeing as how the whole world is depending on you. 

[Joshpantera]

40 minutes ago, TruthSeeker0 said:

Watch the whole lecture, it's not only hurricanes that are being discussed. On the other hand, it appears selective sample sizes are being presented by some parties as the whole picture. The whole damn picture needs to be looked at, not selective parts of it.

 

I watched the whole video a while back. Some of the problems are discussed in the following video I posted (Geezer reposted). 

 

 

[Geezer]

It wasn't that long ago we were being told another ice age was imminent and we needed to do something to stop it or mankind would perish. Well, that obviously didn't happen,  so now we're being warned that the earth is warming and we are all going to perish if we don't do something now. 

 

It seems money, and lots of it,  is always a key element in saving the planet; and this money comes from higher taxes on both individuals and industry. I know Al Gore got very, very, rich playing the role of Chicken Little. 

 

 

[sdelsolray]

Just now, Geezer said:

It wasn't that long ago we were being told another ice age was imminent and we needed to do something to stop it or mankind would perish. Well, that obviously didn't happen,  so now we're being warned that the earth is warming and we are all going to perish if we don't do something now. 

 

It seems money, and lots of it,  is always a key element in saving the planet; and this money comes from higher taxes on both individuals and industry. I know Al Gore got very, very, rich playing the role of Chicken Little. 

 

 

"It seems..."

 

That's funny.

[TruthSeeker0]

1 hour ago, RealityCheck said:

Humans are not wired to concern themselves with threats decades down the road, but rather their immediate needs.  How many of you are willing to give up your carbon guzzling lifestyles?  How many of you are going to stop driving cars or use electricity?  What is the carbon footprint of that packaged you overnighted from Amazon?  How much oil did it take to mine, create, and ship every component that goes into the device you're typing this in?  I'm guessing the answers do not align with what you are preaching.

And even if we cripple our lifestyles and economy by suddenly giving up fossil fules, do you think 3rd word countries will follow suit?  The US and other developed nations carbon footprint is decreasing while that of developing nations is rising (with China being the 800 pound gorilla in the room).  https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?end=2014&start=1960&view=chart Would we be in a moral position to tell them to stop using coal and petroleum to raise their citizens living standards out of poverty?

We're not preaching. Just saying look at the facts. Yes, all of us love our convenient lifestyles, I doubt we would throw them out the window tomorrow even if the threat was more dire. It's human nature. What you're doing is calling this preaching, when others are simply saying look at the facts, let's try face them, because down the road, there will be a problem. One way or the other, humanity will ignore it, if for no other reason than the fact that half the population is suspicious of data and thinks it's in league with big money etc, or then they have their own selfish interests at heart and can't be concerned over the general direction of things. Or, they're christians, or another religion and jesus or another hero is coming to save them anyway, so this world doesn't mean shit to them.

[LogicalFallacy]

56 minutes ago, Geezer said:

It wasn't that long ago we were being told another ice age was imminent and we needed to do something to stop it or mankind would perish. Well, that obviously didn't happen,  so now we're being warned that the earth is warming and we are all going to perish if we don't do something now. 

 

It seems money, and lots of it,  is always a key element in saving the planet; and this money comes from higher taxes on both individuals and industry. I know Al Gore got very, very, rich playing the role of Chicken Little. 

 

 

That Ice age debacle never had wide support amongst the scientific community. But someone published a paper and media ran with it. 

 

Methinks you need to do a lot more research. 

 

Certainly Al Gore got political but that doesn't ipso facto make the science wrong. 

[LogicalFallacy]

For those interested in getting to the bottom of the hype and misunderstanding of climate science there are resources available. This guy breaks matters down quite well. You can, if so inclined, check what he is saying yourself. If you find he is wrong you can message him and he will correct the videos. He has done so before. He links all his sources so most of your checking work is done for you.

 

https://youtu.be/kmECHrOcFlc

 

 

 

 

[LogicalFallacy]

@Joshpantera this one might be of particular interest to you considering your reply to me. 

 

https://youtu.be/8pa8duiMiS0 

 

 

[mwc]

     I'm one of the more optimistic types when it comes to this topic.  I have come to think that humans are affecting the environment but I also think that we will come up with a solution.  One thing I had to learn, which seems to escape most, is the difference between climate and weather.  Most of the things that armchair environmentalist types want to do is just like pissing in the ocean, the low-hanging fruit, of "solutions."  They're easy to do and make people feel good but they really don't have much impact.  Cleaner Semi trucks (which are in the works) do far more than cleaner cars but most people don't give a shit.  Likewise cleaner power plants and factories do far more than these given their output.  But we'll just worry about symbolic "victories."  We'll raise "awareness."  Basically we'll just annoy the hell out of everyone so that they turn to alternate ideas that aren't so annoying.  And we'll never address the actual, largest, problems because they can lobby their way out of doing anything.

 

     So I have hope that someone will actually figure out a solution.  Some tech that can "solve" the problem.  Unfortunately, that will allow a lot of people to say "I told you so" or "I knew it" when their collective asses are pulled from the fire and they never really had to face up to the fact they were running headlong into a brick wall but someone managed to swerve on their behalf.  I guess that might be worth it though.  Until maybe the day they decide it's not worth the funding for whatever solution they choose and this starts all over again.

 

          mwc

 

[Joshpantera]

13 hours ago, LogicalFallacy said:

@Joshpantera this one might be of particular interest to you considering your reply to me. 

 

https://youtu.be/8pa8duiMiS0

 

 

 

Yes, all of the climate alarm is skewed, especially concerning tropical cyclone intensity and formation. Last year when alarmist's were jumping on the hurricane bandwagon charts were going up about how frequency and intensity are not increasing outside of a natural cyclic nature: https://www.businessinsider.com/strongest-atlantic-hurricanes-wind-speed-allen-irma-wilma-2017-9 

 

Science without the alarm (political angles) equals rather flaccid results, in other words. Hurricanes can't be said to increase in number nor intensity outside of natural cycles and yet, that's what people keep saying. Meteorologist's included. This is why "chicken little" has become a problem. People are blaming science because the alarmists claim that they are applying the science. And calling it "settled science." But it looks more like a tangled web of politicized deceit in the name of science. So now people are doubting science, which, is not the best result. You're pissed because people blow off science and so called authority. But the blame for all of this rest squarely with alarmists, or "chicken little's" to be more precise. They're skewing public opinion of science. 

 

Enter the pissed off scientists who are opposed to the politicizing. And what the deep ecologist in the video is talking about are things like the variety of ways to look at the amount of warming and it's affects. It's a scientific counter to most of the alarm. For the sake of trying to straighten out the problem and bring back public opinion about science. Any one interested in getting the objective view should go over the opening video and the video I posted as well and consider the total landscape among scientists. 

[RealityCheck]

10 hours ago, TruthSeeker0 said:

We're not preaching. Just saying look at the facts. Yes, all of us love our convenient lifestyles, I doubt we would throw them out the window tomorrow even if the threat was more dire. It's human nature. What you're doing is calling this preaching, when others are simply saying look at the facts, let's try face them, because down the road, there will be a problem. One way or the other, humanity will ignore it, if for no other reason than the fact that half the population is suspicious of data and thinks it's in league with big money etc, or then they have their own selfish interests at heart and can't be concerned over the general direction of things. Or, they're christians, or another religion and jesus or another hero is coming to save them anyway, so this world doesn't mean shit to them.

Yes, I'm aware of the facts and I know the purpose of this thread.  I'm just making an observation, everyone is willing to have this conversation periodically but at the end of the day, everyone will go on living their high carbon lifestyles.  It's also easy to understand while someone might be suspect of the data, if there is money to be made on something then you should at least exercise some level of skepticism.

I do want to hear your response on the last point I made.  Western civilization came about due to heavy use of fossil fuels.  How would you tell developing nations (the ones who's carbon emissions are steadily rising according to the data I presented) that they can't do the same?  That they can't lift their citizens out of disease and poverty?  Would you think they'd be equipped to handle the challenges of climate change as a 3rd world nation or as a developed one?  What is the path that minimizes human suffering?  See, this last point is rarely touched upon and flips the selfishness argument on its head.