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Is a US war with Iran inevitable?


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The middle east once again stands on the edge of another war and so far Trump seems to be doing everything possible to make it happen. 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12298144

 

We had the US pull out of the nuclear deal with Iran and impose sanctions, then an Iranian oil tanker was seized and Iran responded by seizing tankers in return. Recently we've had a US drone shot down, which the US say was over international waters while Iran says it had crossed over into their airspace. 

 

Now we have the killing of a top Iranian general, in Iraq, with no prior warning to any allied countries. The UN are looking at whether this is an illegal act as there has so far been no immediate threat that such a killing counters. 

Iran have threatened retaliation, Trump in return has threatened to bomb Iran, and Iraq have thrown their support behind their one time enemies and voted on kicking all US troops out of their country. 

Congress are annoyed as the airstrike was not run passed them for approval, but there doesn't seem to be any action likely from their complaints. 

 

I don't think Iran can back down from the anti-US wave sweeping their country, and I can't imagine Trump backing down from strikes if attacks do occur. 

Militarily the US has the firepower to stomp Iran, but if Iran destroy their own oil production and target the oil of their neighbours they could cripple the global economy with around half the worlds oil production coming from within striking range of Iran. 

 

Where do you think the escalation will lead? Is war inevitable? 

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I don't think it is inevitable but this was a very stupid move and Iran will have to respond. There were significant factions within Iran which were very large and opposed to the current government that have now been united by this bonehead action. A response to a provocation needs to be proportional and measured with consideration of the consequences. That was not done here.

 

I could write a lot about this, but the main thing to know is that too many of our politicians know little about the history and culture of the middle east. I once had dinner with Joseph Wilson, the husband of Valerie Plame. You may remember that she was the CIA agent whose cover was blown by Dick Cheney in the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq. Wilson was the second in command at the American embassy in Iraq before the war and was the last American to talk to Saddam. Wilson was a career diplomat, not a political appointee. I sat there for three hours while he told the story of this whole mess. And to understand it you need to go back to the end of WWII when these countries were created by the Allies with no consideration for the local cultures or religions. Religion is a far more important force there than it is anywhere in the west. The West has continued to meddle there without such understanding, and there will never be a resolution until we get out of there and leave them alone.

 

The current mess can be traced directly back to the Bush administration and it's invasion of Iraq. Saddam Hussein was a power that kept Iran in check; removing him opened the door for Iran to move throughout the area. Taking out Soleimani will not stop the Iranian agenda; there are many other folks in the regime who can step in and keep up the campaign to control the entire area. Soleimani was in Iraq at the invitation of Saudi Arabia to work on defusing regional tensions.* So this assassination kills that and makes everything much worse. Saudi Arabia is particularly upset that they were not notified before this was done, as are many of our NATO allies and members of Congress.

 

The advisers who presented Trump with this option in a list of several choices, are partly to blame for even suggesting it to him. They did not think he would choose this, which was the most extreme of the options given to him.

 

So Iran will have to retaliate. Let's hope that it will be just enough to save face and not an escalation, and that the madman in the White House will move on to other paranoias.

 

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*https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7854971/Soleimani-Iraq-discuss-escalating-tensions-Saudis-killed-PM-says.html

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16 hours ago, older said:

I don't think it is inevitable but this was a very stupid move and Iran will have to respond. There were significant factions within Iran which were very large and opposed to the current government that have now been united by this bonehead action.

 

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Cimics aside, I don't know the details of any immanent attack that Trump's attack was supposed to thwart. Considering how much Trump lies, it's hard to trust anything he says. In the event that this may have stopped a planned attack, it may have been justified, but he could be lying like he usually does. Either way, the consequences may be dire.

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To add to what I wrote above, what really scares me is what happens when end-times Christians are in the driver's seat about all this. What if they get hold of the nuclear codes?

 

From the NYT:

"The Washington Post reported that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo — who last year agreed with a Christian Broadcasting Network interviewer that God might have sent Trump to save Israel from the “Iranian menace” — has been pushing for a hit on Suleimani for months." (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/06/opinion/trump-iran.html)

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Even though a call to end this war seems really nice this morning, I do not believe this is over for a minute. This is all strategy. Iran will get U.S. back nice and slow and sneaky. Just enough to avoid a complete war on their land. Thoughts?

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Sorry my contributions to this thread are comics, but sometimes comics say it best. 

 

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BBYKbun.jpeg

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13 hours ago, Margee said:

Even though a call to end this war seems really nice this morning, I do not believe this is over for a minute. This is all strategy. Iran will get U.S. back nice and slow and sneaky. Just enough to avoid a complete war on their land. Thoughts?

 

Also my thoughts.  And being from Kansas I agree with Older that Pompeo is a dangerous dude.  Although many in our state thinks he hung the moon.

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13 hours ago, Margee said:

Even though a call to end this war seems really nice this morning, I do not believe this is over for a minute. This is all strategy. Iran will get U.S. back nice and slow and sneaky. Just enough to avoid a complete war on their land. Thoughts?

   

Part of middle eastern cultures is that they do not forget. They will wait as long as it takes and then strike.

 

It should also be noted that Iran has one fourth or one third, depending on how you count it, of the world's oil reserves. So it is unlikely that the country will ever be left to itself.

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If they really want to get even with Trump, without hurting anyone, they need to bomb his golf courses at night. 

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What concerns me is that many Trump supports will fail to see the complete hypocrisy between what he kept saying about Obama (Obama will start a war with Iran) and Trumps actions.

 

The downing of that plane is at least partially because of the increased tension over there now IMO.

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