Virus Testing

[florduh]

I turn to the excellent resource of our members here. I need your input.

 

I have heard many doctors and researchers weigh in on the efficacy of Covid-19 testing. Some insist it's pretty accurate while others say there is as much as a 30% false positive rate. Others see big problems with the false negatives. There seems to be little agreement. It makes me wonder just how useful these tests are. 

 

A friend of mine was tested on the recommendation of his doctor two weeks ago and still can't get the results. Even if the tests were accurate wouldn't daily testing be needed since you could contract the virus immediately after taking a test? 

 

It occurs to me that widespread testing may have some psychological value but I'm not convinced of any other value to it.

 

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[Margee]

If you poke around on this site you will find tons of information, including the testing. They started stats around March 14th and update every day.  Enough links to keep you going all day. Very interesting. This site will show you that hundreds and hundreds of people were ready to die of the smog alone in Italy.  My husband and I are very interested in the tests (and all the false positives and the positives who don't get any symptoms at all) and the numbers of people who are actually dying of this virus by ITSELF (Or is it because they have 2-3 terrible underlying health conditions which weakens their whole body and immune systems. I.E.Cancer, heart conditions, diabetes, etc.) We think it's a good resource and they up-date it everyday. We do not believe this site is 'conspiracy shit'. Check it out.

 

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR3wAMcwPljqzuLK6E3fGV2Jua63PZd_mgY0I-MO9gJqQFlEZen7HB9gHe0#latest

[florduh]

Thanks, Margee.

[DanForsman]

South Korea has been a leader in controlling the Covid 19 outbreak (after being hit hard by MERS in 2015). Testing played a key roll in their success. I don't know how many different test are in use around the world or how they compare in terms of effectiveness. Unless you feel that world press can't be trusted there is no question that without tests countries and medical experts are left flying blind and pay a high price for it. Here is one of many articles on how South Korea used testing to hunt the virus down weeks before symptoms occurred in their population and effectively identify and  isolate infected individuals and therefore (it is assumed) greatly limit the spread of the virus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/coronavirus-south-korea-testing-could-flatten-pandemic-curve-in-us-areas.html

p.s.   In fact in in preceding years when all the work that was done in the US in preparation for a pandemic prior to Covid 19 no one foresaw the possibility of a wholesale botching of testing such as the one that took place here over the last few months. We are after all probably the most technologically advanced country on earth and yet when the CDC came out with our test for the Coronavirus at pretty much the last minute it was FAULTY and we had to go back to the drawing board with time expired and ultimately come up with far far too few of the working (not sure how effective) tests guaranteeing that we would have no opportunity to do an effective job of controlling the virus. Instead we will provide historical data on how much can go wrong in spite of having so much technological power at our disposal. Again I'm trusting major news sources here.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/30/11-100000-what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-us/ 

[midniterider]

On 4/13/2020 at 7:29 AM, florduh said:

Even if the tests were accurate wouldn't daily testing be needed since you could contract the virus immediately after taking a test? 

 

 

Right, you could get infected anytime after getting swabbed and before you get your test result.

 

 

[midniterider]

On 4/13/2020 at 7:44 AM, Margee said:

If you poke around on this site you will find tons of information, including the testing. They started stats around March 14th and update every day.  Enough links to keep you going all day. Very interesting. This site will show you that hundreds and hundreds of people were ready to die of the smog alone in Italy.  My husband and I are very interested in the tests (and all the false positives and the positives who don't get any symptoms at all) and the numbers of people who are actually dying of this virus by ITSELF (Or is it because they have 2-3 terrible underlying health conditions which weakens their whole body and immune systems. I.E.Cancer, heart conditions, diabetes, etc.) We think it's a good resource and they up-date it everyday. We do not believe this site is 'conspiracy shit'. Check it out.

 

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR3wAMcwPljqzuLK6E3fGV2Jua63PZd_mgY0I-MO9gJqQFlEZen7HB9gHe0#latest

 

I think if some people are asymptomatic, while others are on ventilators ...there must be a bunch of patients with symptoms in between. I'll take a look at your link.

[Wertbag]

One thing to remember is they aren't testing everyone. Only those with symptoms or in direct contact with someone who has, will be tested. A false positive should mean you have a cold or flu, self isolate and recover on your own. A false negative would mean you have covid but only show flu symptoms, so self isolate and in 85% of cases recover fine. 

 

[florduh]

20 hours ago, Wertbag said:

One thing to remember is they aren't testing everyone. Only those with symptoms or in direct contact with someone who has, will be tested. A false positive should mean you have a cold or flu, self isolate and recover on your own. A false negative would mean you have covid but only show flu symptoms, so self isolate and in 85% of cases recover fine. 

 

First I've heard of that theory. False negatives  and positives in other tests don't mean you have something other than what they're testing for. It means that the test was simply wrong for whatever reason. A false positive/negative HIV test doesn't mean you have TB but not HIV. Sorry, not following this reasoning.

[florduh]

Does anyone have an opinion on Margee's link?

[Wertbag]

1 hour ago, florduh said:

First I've heard of that theory. False negatives  and positives in other tests don't mean you have something other than what they're testing for. It means that the test was simply wrong for whatever reason. A false positive/negative HIV test doesn't mean you have TB but not HIV. Sorry, not following this reasoning.

The thought is that those who go for testing have symptoms of a cold or flu which they are worried might be more. A faulty covid test gives them a positive, and you get reports of mild or even asymptomatic people cos the testing quality is suspect. 

How much resource is then wasted tracking those who have been in contact with a false positive? 

[Margee]

On 4/15/2020 at 8:53 PM, florduh said:

Does anyone have an opinion on Margee's link?

Tell me what your opinion is? 

[florduh]

9 minutes ago, Margee said:

Tell me what your opinion is? 

I can't decide about that website, that's why I asked. I can't find anything about them or their agenda. Clearly the opinions come from outliers, but that alone doesn't make them wrong. We don't have many real answers about this virus because it's a new one and the number of cases and deaths are quite open to interpretation here in the States depending on the politics. Conservatives want to downplay the seriousness of the virus while liberals tend to exaggerate. As always, I think the truth lies somewhere in between. I do find it hard to believe that certain people, as claimed on that site, actually regret shutting things down and assert that isolation/distancing makes no difference. We can easily see that less contact translates to less infection, so those claims seem bogus and politically motivated.

[Margee]

16 minutes ago, florduh said:

I can't decide about that website, that's why I asked. I can't find anything about them or their agenda. Clearly the opinions come from outliers, but that alone doesn't make them wrong. We don't have many real answers about this virus because it's a new one and the number of cases and deaths are quite open to interpretation here in the States depending on the politics. Conservatives want to downplay the seriousness of the virus while liberals tend to exaggerate. As always, I think the truth lies somewhere in between. I do find it hard to believe that certain people, as claimed on that site, actually regret shutting things down and assert that isolation/distancing makes no difference. We can easily see that less contact translates to less infection, so those claims seem bogus and politically motivated.

There are so many opinions about the testing.   And how this could have been done in a more 'mannerly' way as to keep the work forces open. I listened to Dr. David L. Katz last night (who I found through the link above) and he was wonderful to listen to. No conspiracies whatsoever. He made total sense to me but I know many would disagree. I liked what he had to say. He also mentions the testing in the video. Have a listen when you get time. I would love to hear your opinion.  

 

[DanForsman]

On 4/15/2020 at 4:53 PM, florduh said:

Does anyone have an opinion on Margee's link?

   Just because this site may be publishing portions of articles and papers that are factually correct doesn't mean there is no agenda. If you want to believe that the whole "pandemic" is wildly overblown and that the economic consequences were not given anywhere near enough weight and that major media is blowing up a typical hard days work at hospitals in New York and Italy into the unparalleled crisis we've been told about then this is an excellent source for you. But wait isn't that the position Trump attempted to maintain with the help of the best spin doctors that money can buy? What made him back down? Doesn't this mean phony pretenders are everywhere infecting world governments, medical and research institutions,the AMA, CDC, WHO, etc.?

   I think the best and brightest minds in the world are working overtime to resolve a difficult and perplexing problem and probably countries are sharing ideas and resources to an extent we have never seen in our lifetimes. A huge percentage of the population isn't going to die. The problem is that way too many individuals need the same intense medical care in outbreak pockets all at the same time creating a situation where thousands have died that could have been saved. Definitely mistakes are being made and misreporting happens from time to time. Has the free press that discovered and reported on Watergate less that 50 years ago evaporated and been completely replaced by a pretend media propaganda machine that simply has no  honest management or reporters? 

   It isn't a typical conspiracy site but if you think there is a pandemic hoax being perpetrated this is a great go to source.  

   The world will learn from this pandemic and find less disruptive ways to deal with this kind of problem. To that end it looks like testing will play a critical roll in controlling future virus transmissions as it did this time around in South Korea. Early on it was stated by many that this was a no win situation politically. Let the virus run it's course and be accused of letting huge numbers of humans die in difference to economic considerations or do a good job of controlling the spread and be accused of over reacting and pointlessly causing severe damage to a vibrant economy.

   This happening so fast that ideas and opinions regarding Covid-19 whether good or bad are subjected to almost no vetting so outlier opinions will necessarily gain more weight. Professionals involved in dealing with the pandemic are unusually busy so probably they are focusing much less energy on countering media misrepresentations. By the nature of this crisis or maybe any crisis the best understand of what is taking place now will be best understood months after the crisis has past. It's just too many huge changes happening too quickly for our society to keep up with.  

[Margee]

3 hours ago, DanForsman said:

By the nature of this crisis or maybe any crisis the best understand of what is taking place now will be best understood months after the crisis has past. It's just too many huge changes happening too quickly for our society to keep up with.  

Agreed Dan. I have tried so hard to find some reliable sites and scientific papers on this virus but i think you are right. We will find out later what we should/could have done but I know they are doing their best. Nobody was prepared for this. We only had weeks to move fast. My heart bleeds for all the deaths. We had 3 more from our nursing homes today. Actually, the nursing homes and staff are taking the biggest hits. The others that have been tested for covid seem to be doing fine and many are recovering in the hospitols..

 

I don't care if they are in their 80', 90's, they were still someones' loved one. I believe 100% in the isolating to get this virus slowed down and I am practicing everything our mayor is telling us to do. But I do wonder if we isolated all the people who have health problems (old and young) why we couldn't allow the strong, healthy ones open the economy back up. Then again, it's so confusing because these strong young ones would have to be tested also. They are saying we just don't have the tests. The testing is what we need. I guess we will all have to remain as patient as we can and let the experts figure it out for us. 

 

Stay safe!

[DanForsman]

10 minutes ago, Margee said:

Agreed Dan. I have tried so hard to find some reliable sites and scientific papers on this virus but i think you are right. We will find out later what we should/could have done but I know they are doing their best. Nobody was prepared for this. We only had weeks to move fast. My heart bleeds for all the deaths. We had 3 more from our nursing homes today. I don't care if they are in their 80', 90's, they were still someones' loved one. I believe 100% in the isolating to get this virus slowed down and I am practicing everything our mayor is telling us to do. But I do wonder if we isolated all the people who have health problems (old and young) why we couldn't allow the strong, healthy ones open the economy back up. Then again, it's so confusing because these strong young ones would have to be tested also. They are saying we just don't have the tests. The testing is what we need. I guess we will all have to remain as patient as we can and let the experts figure it out for us. 

 

Stay safe!

Thanks Margee. You can bet everyone will be looking for better ways to do everything next time and hopefully they will find many. This is an amazing experience and I believe the data on pollution in itself will prove invaluable and also having been forced to see that this is one world and I believe so many problems could be better addressed from that point of view.

[florduh]

5 hours ago, Margee said:

Have a listen when you get time. I would love to hear your opinion.

He pretty much echoes my thoughts. Neither he nor I apparently have any answers, though. We don't even know how "herd immunity" might work in this instance or if medical students would be up for serving as guinea pigs. Obviously, we will not wait for 18 months or more before we get back to usual activities. Go slowly, keep tabs on the spread, adjust as needed.

[TruthSeeker0]

1 hour ago, Margee said:

Agreed Dan. I have tried so hard to find some reliable sites and scientific papers on this virus but i think you are right. We will find out later what we should/could have done but I know they are doing their best. Nobody was prepared for this. We only had weeks to move fast. My heart bleeds for all the deaths. We had 3 more from our nursing homes today. Actually, the nursing homes and staff are taking the biggest hits. The others that have been tested for covid seem to be doing fine and many are recovering in the hospitols..

 

I don't care if they are in their 80', 90's, they were still someones' loved one. I believe 100% in the isolating to get this virus slowed down and I am practicing everything our mayor is telling us to do. But I do wonder if we isolated all the people who have health problems (old and young) why we couldn't allow the strong, healthy ones open the economy back up.

This wont work as we are all connected like a huge network. You'd have to do the equivalent of sending the immunocompromised and elderly to a completely different planet. Heres a visualization of the network in different scenarios. 

http://statnet.org/COVID-JustOneFriend/

1 hour ago, Margee said:

Then again, it's so confusing because these strong young ones would have to be tested also. They are saying we just don't have the tests. The testing is what we need. I guess we will all have to remain as patient as we can and let the experts figure it out for us. 

 

Stay safe!

I think the only reasonable thing we can do now is as our PM suggested - prepare for massive testing and the ability to quickly track down local outbreaks, while slowly reopening the economy. Until we have something like a vaccine. 

[DanForsman]

2 hours ago, florduh said:

we will not wait for 18 months or more before we get back to usual activities

For sure and then optimistically we could have effective treatment/s as soon as this fall and then a vaccine by the summer of 2021. So I think it is very likely that we are seeing the worst of this Covid-19 outbreak right now and in the next few weeks coming. Work on solutions started pretty quickly worldwide and has been proceeding at a pace that is as fast or even more likely faster than ever before.

[florduh]

26 minutes ago, DanForsman said:

For sure and then optimistically we could have effective treatment/s as soon as this fall and then a vaccine by the summer of 2021. So I think it is very likely that we are seeing the worst of this Covid-19 outbreak right now and in the next few weeks coming. Work on solutions started pretty quickly worldwide and has been proceeding at a pace that is as fast or even more likely faster than ever before.

Yes, they seem to be doing an outstanding job on research and development. Unfortunately it can't go as quickly as we'd like but we are probably seeing best case.

 

Armed terrorists blocking ambulances and hospitals aside, people in general will just start going out after a certain time in confinement, and it will be a different timeline for everybody. Personally, I could stay put until there is a vaccine, but I know a lot of people who just won't make it that long. The majority have to go back to work to survive and will take their chances. Some are just stir crazy. I can only hope that some strict protocols are in place when people start moving about again and going to their jobs.

 

It appears that if there could be a total lock down for even two weeks that would pretty much manage the spread. That can never happen, though, especially at this point. Good luck to everybody.

 

[florduh]

I might add that Sweden, Taiwan and South Korea have done better without any lock downs. That is because they had extensive testing and tracking that we can't seem to manage here in America. It is apparently not necessary to close all the businesses if you have a way to monitor the virus. Lacking that capability, it seems keeping people away from each other does work, though at a high cost.

[Margee]

5 hours ago, TruthSeeker0 said:

This wont work as we are all connected like a huge network. You'd have to do the equivalent of sending the immunocompromised and elderly to a completely different planet. Heres a visualization of the network in different scenarios. 

 

 

Goodpoint @TruthSeeker0. As I've been researching the best I can, I have found out that the main cause of the virus attacking certain people (age does not matter) who are compromised.(That would aslo include dear little babies)  The list goes on. Everything from Cancer, obesity, diabetes heart problems, malnutrition from eating all junk food, etc. A lot of folk will have to be isolated. I even heard one doctor of health say that America (Although I would stick Canada in this category also!)  has the absolute worst eating habits (mostly the young generation) and that if their bodies are not well nourished with the right nutrients from food, that they are susceptible to experience harm and sickness from the virus. So you see, I have found out it's not just the elderly. 

[Margee]

3 hours ago, florduh said:

Yes, they seem to be doing an outstanding job on research and development. Unfortunately it can't go as quickly as we'd like but we are probably seeing best case.

 

Armed terrorists blocking ambulances and hospitals aside, people in general will just start going out after a certain time in confinement, and it will be a different timeline for everybody. Personally, I could stay put until there is a vaccine, but I know a lot of people who just won't make it that long. The majority have to go back to work to survive and will take their chances. Some are just stir crazy. I can only hope that some strict protocols are in place when people start moving about again and going to their jobs.

 

It appears that if there could be a total lock down for even two weeks that would pretty much manage the spread. That can never happen, though, especially at this point. Good luck to everybody.

 

So true, they are trying so hard to move fast. The rebelling that is going to start happening (Which is already has) is going to mess the system up that they want to eventually wean us into. I think we're in for some real dumb stuff with the revolutions. I also believe we will get a total lockdown before this is over (because we have people who won't follow directions and take this seriously here) and I have prepared for it. Our Premier tells us everyday how we will slowly open things while we still maintain distance and move on from there. For instance, we got word last night that our campgrounds will be open only to the seasonals and we must follow the exact rules at our campground as in the city. Unfortunately, we're not sure if it will be open to tenters so I'm sure they won't fill the pool and will probably rope off the playground. (even for the kids who go up every year) They will have to find a new way to 'play' this year and these parents that I know are very responsible so I was thrilled to death that we can go in a few weeks. Just to get out of this house and have a little break up in the beautiful country soothes my soul tonight. I felt a tiny bit of 'normal' (and hopeful) today. 

 

[TruthSeeker0]

1 hour ago, Margee said:

 

Goodpoint @TruthSeeker0. As I've been researching the best I can, I have found out that the main cause of the virus attacking certain people (age does not matter) who are compromised.(That would aslo include dear little babies)  The list goes on. Everything from Cancer, obesity, diabetes heart problems, malnutrition from eating all junk food, etc. A lot of folk will have to be isolated. I even heard one doctor of health say that America (Although I would stick Canada in this category also!)  has the absolute worst eating habits (mostly the young generation) and that if their bodies are not well nourished with the right nutrients from food, that they are susceptible to experience harm and sickness from the virus. So you see, I have found out it's not just the elderly. 

Agree 100%. I'm thankful that I started the wahls protocol (an autoimmune nutritional diet) for my health issues at the beginning of the year and try not to dwell on the fact I have asthma and cardiomyopathy. At the end of the day we can only do our best and need to avoid any stress now that affects the immune system. I've largely stopped looking at the news for that reason. I'm one of the people that will not be able to return to work - I was in retail and that's simply too risky. I'm hoping that when things are more back to normal, that fact will not disqualify me from assistance, as I'll need to voluntarily leave. I'm not looking for a handout but there's no clear way through this mess and I'd rather do everything I can to protect my partner and I from the risks. It's just a huge unknown at this point. 

[☆ pantheory ☆]

We are looking at a great number of ways that the Covid 19 data could be wrong, misleading, and/ or misconstrued. In the US very few people can get tested for Covid 19 unless that person has strong symptoms of the disease and a doctor has recommended the test. Even then priority goes to the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.

There is not enough data in the US to tell what percentage of people have false positive or false negative results from these tests. For this we could look to worldwide data whereby it can be estimated that roughly 20% of testing will yield false positives, and roughly 12 percent will yield false negatives. The false negatives can be attributed to specimen collection methods and problems inherent in the testing itself. But there is no agreement as to the reasons for false positives. There also could be 10 times the number of people who have contacted the disease and are producing antibodies against it who won't be tested, and if tested would likely not test positive. Only an antibody test could find these people, but presently there is no such approved antibody test in the US, even though there are foreign antibody tests available being used in the US. Those people that do not have symptoms of the disease might not be very likely to spread the disease if they are not sneezing, coughing, and there is little or no viral containing aerosol in their breath.

What percentages of the people who have been tested have Covid 19? In the US  the percentage rate is about 20%. This is one of the highest in the world, but other countries that have had higher per capita testing, have a lower percentage of positive results.

What percentage of people that have had Covid 19 are being tested? This is the key to how serious the disease is for people who are under 65, do not smoke or vape, and do not have underlying health conditions. Since Covid 19 has not been around that long these is a very big difference of opinion concerning this figure. The most conservative projection is that at least 1 in 10 people who have had the disease get tested. The most optimistic view is that for every person that gets tested there are 200 more people who have not been tested because most did not think they had the disease, and some had no symptoms.

The ultimate question then becomes, what percentage of the people who get Covid 19 die from it. We know that 3.4% of the people in the US  who have tested positive, have died from the disease. In the world the death rate stands at roughly 2%. In the US Roughly only 10% of those tested have the disease.

“When undetected infections weren't taken into account, the Lancet study found that the coronavirus death rate was 1.38%, which is more consistent with earlier reports." But many experts think this figure is too high.  Using the most conservative numbers this calculates to be .66% percent of those infected in US will die from the disease. Using the most positive numbers, only 1 in 200 people who have been exposed to the disease and would test positive, ever get sick enough to get tested. This would be a death rate of only .069%, or about 2-3 people per thousand who contract the disease enough to get sick, will die from it. By comparison Influenza types A and B together (the flu), about 1 person per thousand dies from the flu per year. Roughly half of those people had flu shots that same year. For those that did not have a flu shot that season the death rate was about 2 people per thousand, twice as many, not much different from the Covid 19 best-projection death rate.

Trying to put this into perspective, for people under 65 with no known underlying health conditions, their chances of dying from an auto accident or other preventable injuries including suicide, are probably greater than them dying from Covid 19.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/15/834497497/antibody-tests-for-coronavirus-can-miss-the-mark

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/04/cdc-launches-studies-to-get-more-precise-count-of-undetected-covid-19-cases/

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/deaths-by-demographics/all-leading-causes-of-death/?utm_campaign=Injury+Facts&utm_source=adwords&utm_term=leading cause of death in us&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_cam=244859199&hsa_ad=294883670143&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_acc=3965156914&hsa_grp=55630082869&hsa_tgt=kwd-298697443163&hsa_ver=3&hsa_src=g&hsa_kw=leading cause of death in us&hsa_mt=b&gclid=CjwKCAjw7e_0BRB7EiwAlH-goBhfMxIPiQ0SVBWYc9RnQTAacuTGathwP1Rhv7h2-ux2QXdeg7nnIBoC2oYQAvD_BwE