Virus Testing

[Myrkhoos]

Well massive testing could help at least generally knowing where big outbreaks are. Like 10 percent test can be wrong but if in a city there are 1000 cases in another 3 cases confirmed you can adjust the severity of the outbreak. By the way a german doctor said that medical personnel in intensive care are being tested daily. 

     For me this is turning into a case of TMI. too much info overload.

[older]

14 hours ago, Myrkhoos said:

For me this is turning into a case of TMI. too much info overload.

  

Yeah. And there are too many information sources with various agendas. For me personally, I will listen to the experts from sources that have proven themselves through decades of accurate reporting and then decide for myself how much risk I am willing to take. Life is full of risk. I could get killed in a car wreck. But I am willing to take that risk because the level of risk is very low. OTOH, the risk to me personally right now from the virus is very high. If I get it it is almost certain that I will die from it. So I'm not willing to take that risk at this point. At some time in the future the risk will lower and I may be willing then to take said risk. At some point I will make an informed decision based on trusted sources.

[ConsiderTheSource]

The solution for the 30% false tests is simply.  Take the test four times. 

 

If you have the same result each time there is less than a 1% chance of it not being accurate.

[florduh]

12 hours ago, ConsiderTheSource said:

The solution for the 30% false tests is simply.  Take the test four times. 

 

If you have the same result each time there is less than a 1% chance of it not being accurate.

Not sure if you're being serious here.

 

I just saw a couple who are both doctors. They were exposed at the same time, developed the same symptoms and put themselves in quarantine. Her test was positive, his was negative. Both do have the virus, however. If they weren't a couple then he would have continued to go to work at the hospital on the assumption he was clear.

[TheRedneckProfessor]

You'd best just drink some Lysol, just to be safe.

[older]

On 4/26/2020 at 9:25 AM, TheRedneckProfessor said:

You'd best just drink some Lysol, just to be safe.

 

 

 

[◊ Weezer ◊]

HEY, WHERE CAN I BUY THOSE?

[ConsiderTheSource]

On 4/26/2020 at 4:43 AM, florduh said:

Not sure if you're being serious here.

 

I just saw a couple who are both doctors. They were exposed at the same time, developed the same symptoms and put themselves in quarantine. Her test was positive, his was negative. Both do have the virus, however. If they weren't a couple then he would have continued to go to work at the hospital on the assumption he was clear.

Not sure I understand this response.

 

I am just talking about the math.      .30 * .30 * .30 * .30 yields an error rate < .01.  Of course this assumes the 30% error rate is random in nature, and not dependent on an outside factor.

 

If we don't have a more accurate alternative, and if there is demand for a higher level of accuracy, this is one way to get there. 

 

[florduh]

7 minutes ago, ConsiderTheSource said:

Not sure I understand this response.

 

I am just talking about the math.      .30 * .30 * .30 * .30 yields an error rate < .01.  Of course this assumes the 30% error rate is random in nature, and not dependent on an outside factor.

 

If we don't have a more accurate alternative, and if there is demand for a higher level of accuracy, this is one way to get there. 

 

Sure, math, but we can't even test most people even one time at our current capacity. I'm also not sure how many would willing sit for multiple brain swabs through the nose. Of course should they get exposed anytime after the testing then that (those) results wouldn't be useful anyway, would they? This is why we can only assume everyone carries the virus because there's really no way to be sure in most cases. Without any prevention or cure available the appearance of massive testing is of great psychological value for most people.

[MOHO]

On 4/25/2020 at 3:37 PM, ConsiderTheSource said:

The solution for the 30% false tests is simply.  Take the test four times. 

 

If you have the same result each time there is less than a 1% chance of it not being accurate.

Compute the total values 3 times.

If they are all the same your balance sheet has a 99% probability of being correct.

 

You sound like a former bean counter or something.

 

[florduh]

3 hours ago, MOHO said:

Compute the total values 3 times.

As noted earlier, my friend waited almost two weeks to get his result, which was presumably negative. I understand what you're saying about accuracy but that would result in fewer but perhaps more accurate tests being done. I just don't see the advantage.

[Myrkhoos]

What is interesting is that this a turning for me into a question of high grade biology, high grade statistics and high grade economy. I just...crash and burn mentally trying to understand.

[florduh]

6 hours ago, Myrkhoos said:

What is interesting is that this a turning for me into a question of high grade biology, high grade statistics and high grade economy. I just...crash and burn mentally trying to understand.

It's new territory for everybody including the "experts." But what's interesting to me is that this is the first time we get a pretty good look at the science behind the development of vaccines and cures. Until now they worked behind the scenes for 3 or 4 years (or more) and then announced the new drugs. I think the process is interesting and also frustrating, but that's just how it works. As far as economics, we have no precedent for that either; the guesser with the loudest voice (and deepest pockets) will win out eventually. I'm no economist but I see this as the final blow to the middle class as only the filthy rich will come out of this with barely a scratch.

[florduh]

On 4/18/2020 at 9:52 AM, Margee said:

Tell me what your opinion is? 

 

So I've finally come to a conclusion.

 

It's right wing propaganda.

 

After touting the success of Sweden with it's no lockdown policy it turns out they have had twice the death rate of neighboring countries that established distancing and isolation measures. Such measures have proven to be the only effective way to flatten the curve and Sweden is not an anomaly but a lie.

 

A W.H.O. study referenced for their opposition to social distancing and quarantine turned out to be about the flu, not Covid-19, which is very much more transmissible, and also more deadly. They like to compare this virus to the flu and that is demonstrably incorrect.

 

They are clearly against the only measures known to slow down the spread, and use false information to make their point. The deeper one looks the more it resembles one of our bullshit "press briefings" from the White House. It pretty much runs counter to the vast majority of expert opinion and the documented history of the disease we've seen so far.

 

 

 

[TheRedneckProfessor]

17 minutes ago, florduh said:

 

So I've finally come to a conclusion.

 

It's right wing propaganda.

 

After touting the success of Sweden with it's no lockdown policy it turns out they have had twice the death rate of neighboring countries that established distancing and isolation measures. Such measures have proven to be the only effective way to flatten the curve and Sweden is not an anomaly but a lie.

 

A W.H.O. study referenced for their opposition to social distancing and quarantine turned out to be about the flu, not Covid-19, which is very much more transmissible, and also more deadly. They like to compare this virus to the flu and that is demonstrably incorrect.

 

They are clearly against the only measures known to slow down the spread, and use false information to make their point. The deeper one looks the more it resembles one of our bullshit "press briefings" from the White House. It pretty much runs counter to the vast majority of expert opinion and the documented history of the disease we've seen so far.

 

 

 

But you're still going to take the hydroxychoroquine, right?  

[florduh]

30 minutes ago, TheRedneckProfessor said:

But you're still going to take the hydroxychoroquine, right?  

Of course. I'm not an idiot.

 

[TruthSeeker0]

3 hours ago, florduh said:

 

So I've finally come to a conclusion.

 

It's right wing propaganda.

 

After touting the success of Sweden with it's no lockdown policy it turns out they have had twice the death rate of neighboring countries that established distancing and isolation measures. Such measures have proven to be the only effective way to flatten the curve and Sweden is not an anomaly but a lie.

 

A W.H.O. study referenced for their opposition to social distancing and quarantine turned out to be about the flu, not Covid-19, which is very much more transmissible, and also more deadly. They like to compare this virus to the flu and that is demonstrably incorrect.

 

They are clearly against the only measures known to slow down the spread, and use false information to make their point. The deeper one looks the more it resembles one of our bullshit "press briefings" from the White House. It pretty much runs counter to the vast majority of expert opinion and the documented history of the disease we've seen so far.

 

 

 

I'd have to say I agree. 

Regarding Sweden, I've found it shocking what ive read about the stats - when the death rates are compared to the average death rates of the last few years in Sweden and neighboring countries, it's much higher in Sweden. 

 

There's not even enough evidence that herd immunity will be possible at this time, and Sweden has bet it's whole approach on that being  a reality. 

 

 

[DanForsman]

So the original question from florduh involved the use of testing when there were so many reports of inaccuracies in the results. Take a look at what has been going on in Iceland with their very aggressive testing program:

It’s still early but it is certainly possible that they may have the model that will be used in the future. NO LOCK DOWN WHATEVER!!!

[florduh]

"The fish rots from the head down." Nailed it. America has the potential competence to lead but obviously not the will.

[TheRedneckProfessor]

2 hours ago, florduh said:

"The fish rots from the head down." Nailed it. America has the potential competence to lead but obviously not the will.

Currently, not the intelligence, either.

[older]

Thinking about the posts above from Florduh and the Prof., I read an interesting piece the other day about freedom. The freedom to vs. the freedom from. And part of the piece was that sometimes the freedom to results in a selfish action or response, without consideration of other people's freedom from. For some things the answer is clear but for others it is a conundrum.

 

But back to the o.p., my doc ordered an antibody test for me and the results came back with so many disclaimers that the test is essentially meaningless.

[Myrkhoos]

I recently saw a video about Baudrilard and the real vs the hyperreal, simulacra and simulation. This is a surely a case of that. I recommend some videos about it to anyone. Basically the tv/media version becomes the standard of reality upon which the reality is constructed and judged. It's more real than real.