Dunning-Kruger effect. And it's relation to religion and theistic belief?

[Joshpantera]

First, what the D-K effect is: 

 

 

See the connections to religion? 

 

This can be very apparent when analyzing the effect against many christian apologist's.

 

They are certain and confident of things which in reality are associated with very low, to zero certainty. Willfully ignorant every step of the way as to how uncertain, their certainty based claims and beliefs are in reality. The religion is just one means of many in which the D-K effect can play itself out. So it's the D-K effect customized to their personal beliefs. 

 

This gives a depth of perspective when dealing with christian apologists, in my opinion. And why it can be 'pull out your hair frustrating' trying to get through to them at times and ultimately impossible to get key points across. They are convinced of their superior knowledge and position regardless of demonstrable evidence to the contrary...

[midniterider]

Do you think the D-K effect describes people who are certain the 2020 election was 'stolen' despite the lack of evidence in 50+ lawsuits? Or Qanon and other conspiracy followers?

[Joshpantera]

4 hours ago, midniterider said:

Do you think the D-K effect describes people who are certain the 2020 election was 'stolen' despite the lack of evidence in 50+ lawsuits? Or Qanon and other conspiracy followers?

 

We can't really go into anything that political in scope on the forums. The D-K effect has to lens through science and religion or some other more vague context for discussion purposes around here. 

[◊ Weezer ◊]

It has been my observation that the less educated Christians are the most dogmatic.   And in other areas.

 

  

[Joshpantera]

35 minutes ago, Weezer said:

It has been my observation that the less educated Christians are the most dogmatic.   And in other areas.

 

  

 

Yeah, that seems to be the case. A guy like WLC is more sophisticated and probably far less dogmatic than a run of the mill literalist with little education. But I see an application for the D-K effect even in the highly educated case as well. Every time I've debated with or watched debates from the higher education class of apologists, it always, every time without exception, boils down to someone who thinks they know far more than they actually do. Highly credentialed or otherwise, they can't seem to clearly understand the extent of what remains unknown or unknowable about the content or premise of the debate. 

 

This remains true of either a debate about the existence of god, the truth of the bible, the historicity of jesus, or anything similar. Clearly cognitive dissonance plays a key role. But this D-K effect is tightly interwoven. This effect of thinking that you know so much more than what you actually do. Or are far better at something than you actually are. I've seen this a lot in music. I've seen this a lot in sports. And the driving example in the video speaks volumes about it. 

 

In midnite's hypothetical scenario, just briefly, I'd say that it applies to people dismissing 'something' that they can't possibly know the truth of without extensive investigation. Not honestly know the truth of.

 

As in hand wave dismissal and excusing a situation about 'something,' without proper investigation and transparency of that 'something,' equates to thinking or acting like you "know" things that you can't possibly "know" about the 'something' in question.

 

 As in if someone cheated at 'something' or not. A test. On a partner or spouse. Or something similar.

 

You can't know the truth of the scenario by way of hand wave dismissing an investigation into the claim of wrong doing, let's say. That would qualify as a type of D-K effect it would seem. The problem of thinking that you already 'know the answer' to something that you couldn't possibly have conclusive knowledge of without doing the work necessary to demonstrate and prove as conclusive. 

 

This could be about lying, or cheating, or stealing, or any number of vague scenarios. The D-K effect would seem to lead someone in a false direction, thinking they are dead right about something premature to obtaining the sort of conclusive knowledge to hammer down such a conclusion. In reality the situation is an agnostic one. You don't know if they were cheating or lying if you simply hand wave dismiss the claim without rigorous or necessary investigation. 

 

 

[midniterider]

58 minutes ago, Joshpantera said:

 

We can't really go into anything that political in scope on the forums. The D-K effect has to lens through science and religion or some other more vague context for discussion purposes around here. 

ok

 

[◊ Weezer ◊]

My mind is in a funk right now, and I can't explain it, but with what I see as the increase in narcissism, could this increase the D-K effect?  "I'm right.  Don't question me!" 

[Joshpantera]

1 hour ago, Weezer said:

My mind is in a funk right now, and I can't explain it, but with what I see as the increase in narcissism, could this increase the D-K effect?  "I'm right.  Don't question me!" 

 

I'm getting caught up on reading around here after a long vacation to the mountains. I saw that you were having trouble sleeping previously. Are you doing alright? 

 

I would think that an increase in narcissism would increase the D-K effect.

 

These folks don't do well with being questioned. My wife was reading a book recently about narcissism in the US and it's apparent rise. And with religion in decline that leaves a glaring scenario where narcissism is currently running through and possibly rising it's way through secular society outside of it's religious context. Although it's deeply rooted in it's religious based context. It's off and away into just about everything else beyond religion. 

 

That really sucks. Because even if religion declines and takes a less dominant role, we're still facing the same problems under different banners if the root of the issue isn't addressed in the process. The root being anything ranging from groupthink, to cognitive dissonance, to the D-K effect and run of the mill narcissistic behavior. It's like the old image of a little dutch boy sticking his fingers in the dam leaks. Stop one, another pops up.....

[◊ Weezer ◊]

I'll be alright.  I think the political scene, and being cooped up in the house avoiding the covid virus, and cold weather has got me "reved up" and perhaps giving some knee jerk responses.  But this isn't the place to discuss that.

 

In addition to narcissism I think the trend of "putting down" higher education and science is also part of the D-K problem, in all areas of society.  Authoritarian religion, politicians, and industry, all like dummed down people who can be duped into believing they are "needy" in some way, and need "heros" (and products) to save them, whether it is their God, their candidate, or their guns, etc.  If you think about it, who profits from all the chaos. And wars?  And says you need their products.  Preachers, politicians, and industry.  And lawyers get rich off all the legal hassles.  I know I am veering off from Religion, but it is, in a sense, all tied together with what we are discussing.  And what I see behind it all is greed.  Authoritarian hunger for power, money, control.  Lack of respect for fellow human beings.

 

It just occurred to me that narcissism is greed.  Right back where I started from.  And I think you can guess what I think the answer to the problem is.  Education and respect.

[Joshpantera]

13 hours ago, Weezer said:

I know I am veering off from Religion, but it is, in a sense, all tied together with what we are discussing.  And what I see behind it all is greed.  Authoritarian hunger for power, money, control.  Lack of respect for fellow human beings.

 

We're trying to vaguely touch on the issues that necessarily come up. Just handle it like I did previously. We just can't have partisan arguments going around the forums specific to party and such. But I completely understand what you're trying to say. 

 

13 hours ago, Weezer said:

In addition to narcissism I think the trend of "putting down" higher education and science is also part of the D-K problem, in all areas of society.  Authoritarian religion, politicians, and industry, all like dummed down people who can be duped into believing they are "needy" in some way, and need "heros" (and products) to save them, whether it is their God, their candidate, or their guns, etc.  If you think about it, who profits from all the chaos. And wars?  And says you need their products.  Preachers, politicians, and industry.  And lawyers get rich off all the legal hassles.

 

Personally, I think that this all ties in to the social science aspect of trying to scientifically analyze the D-K effect. Like I was saying before, it transcends the religious context. And amounts to a human problem that has latched itself to religion and just about everything else.

 

I would add social media and mainstream media to the above list.

 

The issue with policing everyone's posts with biased "fact checking" on many social media sites recently seems pretty narcissistic when analyzed and stripped bare. It's the "Hero" complex playing out again. People can't understand anything on their own, they need social media saviors to do all of that for them. The people behind the key boards and running these sites seem pretty narcissistic and D-K effected in many ways. And it all ties in together with all you've mentioned above. They are very much the same as the other people and industry you've mentioned. All are guilty, transcending party, and secular, and religious lines. 

 

 

[webmdave]

One of my favorite books that insightfully relates to this topic may be of interest:

 

https://www.amazon.com/dp/0060505915/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_awdb_imm_t1_8mD8FbTN9BSNY

[TheRedneckProfessor]

I'm not sure I'm intelligent enough to understand the Dunning-Kruger effect.

[pantheory]

20 hours ago, Joshpantera said:

First, what the D-K effect is: 

 

 

See the connections to religion? 

 

This can be very apparent when analyzing the effect against many christian apologist's.

 

They are certain and confident of things which in reality are associated with very low, to zero certainty. Willfully ignorant every step of the way as to how uncertain, their certainty based claims and beliefs are in reality. The religion is just one means of many in which the D-K effect can play itself out. So it's the D-K effect customized to their personal beliefs. 

 

This gives a depth of perspective when dealing with christian apologists, in my opinion. And why it can be 'pull out your hair frustrating' trying to get through to them at times and ultimately impossible to get key points across. They are convinced of their superior knowledge and position regardless of demonstrable evidence to the contrary...

 

Like myself, I expect many have realized the self delusion by many related to the D-K effect. This is the first time, however, that I realized the name of it and of those who have studied it.  Thanks for the posting and link

 

 

[pantheory]

2 hours ago, TheRedneckProfessor said:

I'm not sure I'm intelligent enough to understand the Dunning-Kruger effect.

 

Your comment suggests otherwise

[Joshpantera]

6 hours ago, webmdave said:

One of my favorite books that insightfully relates to this topic may be of interest:

 

https://www.amazon.com/dp/0060505915/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_awdb_imm_t1_8mD8FbTN9BSNY

 

I just started reading through the "look inside" preview on the amazon page. 

[webmdave]

1 hour ago, Joshpantera said:

 

I just started reading through the "look inside" preview on the amazon page. 

 

It is a worldwide classic work (1951) that may be beneficial to anyone interested in better interpreting social, political and religious movements. 

 

Eric Hoffer (deceased in 1983) is an iconic thinker and a very readable author. His observations in 1951 are remarkably relevant and applicable today. 

 

Highly recommended. 

[◊ Weezer ◊]

7 hours ago, Joshpantera said:

 

I just started reading through the "look inside" preview on the amazon page. 

 

I just read the first few chapters.  Very interesting!  Thanks for suggesting.

[Joshpantera]

Brothermario came along as a sudden case study of apologetic oriented D-K effect. Here comes a guy live demonstrating the effect as we're discussing it here. The guy was certain of some sort of 'self perceived' large depth of philosophical knowledge and understanding - which amounts to a small little square around himself, engulfed by a massive square around that one (like in the video example in the OP). Certain of himself, arrogant, cocky, and condescending to any and all who he assumed are far beneath his massive wealth of knowledge and experience. 

 

Classic D-K effect behavior...

 

 

 

[pantheory]

5 hours ago, Joshpantera said:

Brothermario came along as a sudden case study of apologetic oriented D-K effect. Here comes a guy live demonstrating the effect as we're discussing it here. The guy was certain of some sort of 'self perceived' large depth of philosophical knowledge and understanding - which amounts to a small little square around himself, engulfed by a massive square around that one (like in the video example in the OP). Certain of himself, arrogant, cocky, and condescending to any and all who he assumed are far beneath his massive wealth of knowledge and experience. 

 

Classic D-K effect behavior...

 

 

 

I recognized the face and blue hair, but was even more impressed by the cross and priests collar. I have seen cartoons of smurfs but didn't know what they really were like as it might relate to Brothermario and the possibly of the D-K effect-- so I looked it up on the net.

I found that smurfs are little blue bastards which are vicious drunkards within their own realm. They abuse Smurffet, the only female in the village and run trains on her. But one cannot feel sorry for Smurfett because some of the other days she runs her trick ass up and down the main road in the valley to the highest bidder.

But in the middle Earth, those Smurfs which can be caught, are used for sexual practices to tickle the inside of the rectum of the Masters and Lords of the Hobbits.

Brothermario as a braggadocio, did not wish to enlighten us about these aspects of his racial heritage or persona.

Definition #6

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=smurf

 

 

 

 

 

[◊ Weezer ◊]

That sounds like some pedophile priests I have heard about.

[Joshpantera]

30 minutes ago, Weezer said:

That sounds like some pedophile priests I have heard about.

 

Pretty weird stuff all the way around. Right to the end. 

[LogicalFallacy]

On 1/3/2021 at 11:18 AM, midniterider said:

Do you think the D-K effect describes people who are certain the 2020 election was 'stolen' despite the lack of evidence in 50+ lawsuits? Or Qanon and other conspiracy followers?

 

Interesting point, I understand what you are getting at. However, my understanding of the D-K effect, in very simple terms has to do with people thinking they are much smarter than they really are. In effect they over estimate their intelligence or ability. I'm not sure if this is the psychological effect that is primarily in play with the above situation. I think what we are seeing is cognitive dissonance and denial similar to what one might find in a creationist, a flat earther, or anti vaxer for example. I'm not sure if anybody here has actually tried to explain evolution to a creationist? I have. It doesn't matter what evidence you bring up it's all thrown aside because the Bible says "In the beginning God..." I think we saw a recent example of this effect here, as others have pointed out with Brother Mario. In saying this though, the layman research I did, when I was first deconverting, into psychological state of minds indicated that several states could be at play.

 

On 1/3/2021 at 10:43 AM, Joshpantera said:

See the connections to religion? 

 

This can be very apparent when analyzing the effect against many christian apologist's.

 

They are certain and confident of things which in reality are associated with very low, to zero certainty. Willfully ignorant every step of the way as to how uncertain, their certainty based claims and beliefs are in reality. The religion is just one means of many in which the D-K effect can play itself out. So it's the D-K effect customized to their personal beliefs.

 

I'm not sure you are applying the D-K effect correctly. Just because someone is incorrectly overconfident in some position or the other doesn't mean that the D-K effect is attributable to them necessarily does it? Many Christians claim absolute confidence in God because of their faith but I wouldn't necessarily attribute this to D-K unless they were, say, attempting to expound upon some concept which they think they have a good grasp of, but in fact do not.

 

On 1/3/2021 at 10:43 AM, Joshpantera said:

This gives a depth of perspective when dealing with christian apologists, in my opinion. And why it can be 'pull out your hair frustrating' trying to get through to them at times and ultimately impossible to get key points across. They are convinced of their superior knowledge and position regardless of demonstrable evidence to the contrary...

 

Again, I'm not sure that D-K is the correct effect to be applying here. I think of my family, and while there are times when D-K is certainly in effect (Happens to all of us from time to time) I don't think this is the primary reason why I can't get through to them. They really believe what they really believe because they really believe it. Sure they deny reality, but they don't think they are denying reality and they think I'm caught by the secular worldview. I'm not even sure cognitive dissonance applies to many religious folk. That only applies to people holding contradictory views. For example you believe in a 6,000 year old earth and evolution. The two cannot be true at the same time. Or say, you don't think animals should be harmed to feed humans, but you eat meat. (That's one I'm currently dealing with)

 

Interesting topic. I've been interested in psychological effects of religion. But now my brain is fried and it's early morning so I'll continue tomorrow... no wait later today.

[Joshpantera]

On 1/7/2021 at 6:15 AM, LogicalFallacy said:

Many Christians claim absolute confidence in God because of their faith but I wouldn't necessarily attribute this to D-K unless they were, say, attempting to expound upon some concept which they think they have a good grasp of, but in fact do not.

 

Insert the concept of theology as "knowledge in field," and there you have it (see chart provided below in my next post). 

 

Much like BM, William, Luthifer, and countless other similar examples. They don't understand nearly the depth that they assume. They think they know it all. But they know a fraction of what there is to be learned. With high confidence all while being this ignorant of a given field. 

 

 

 

 

[TheRedneckProfessor]

Not all confident stupidity is D-K; some is just plain stupid confidence.

[Joshpantera]

 

I can imagine this chart against something like many visiting apologists around here.  In that case it seems to be everyone's goal to try and lead them forward towards a fuller realization and broader understanding of the bible, god, or whatever the case may be. 

 

With Brothermario, he's literally at the "I know everything" mark of this D-K effect sort of heroes journey. 

 

Members start interacting from a broader understanding themselves, coaxing BM towards the, "there's more to this than I thought" mark. He never made it that far apparently. 

 

Hypothetically, if BM did make the next stop on the journey and something caught his attention, it would likely lead to the next step of, "I'm never going to understand this." Which could represent something like realizing the holes and contradictions with Genesis and creationism. Then feeling like, wow, I'm completely out of my comfort zone now. The world is wide open. This is kind of scary. The truth could be anything. It would be hard to understand life and the world through a new lens. Especially abruptly. 

 

But, if pressing even further, things could "start making more sense" through the new lens as adjustments are made and more comes into focus. Until finally getting around to the, "trust me, it's complicated," mark on the journey. Where things like agnostic philosophy makes way more sense than it did back at the, "I know everything," platform that he walked in on. 

 

And this could easily apply to any number of apologists who visit here. It most likely applies to just about every member who literally had to move through these basic motions to get from sitting a pew praising jesus, to posting on an ex christian website.