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NATO, Ukraine and the future


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Leading on from the conversation in February we've seen a lot of interesting developments.


For one it seems Putin's fears of having NATO on the border which was part of the reason he started his "special military operation" has no caused them to be realized as it looks like Sweden and Finland look set to become NATO members. Finland's border will double the length of the NATO border with Russia.


Meanwhile Russia is weakened by the Ukraine conflict which has taken much longer, and been more costly than anticipated, largely in part by massive injections of funds and arms into Ukraine by the West. It remains to be seem whether Putin's gambit is a success for Russia or not. So far not looking great.


And on the other side is China patiently watching. No doubt they will be considering what moves they could/should or shouldn't make.


One thing we can be certain of is continuing disruption to global economics and potentially hard times and fuel and food production is impacted by the various crises going on. 

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I worry about how this will continue to escalate.  Russia is all in.  Our financial-industrial complex (the Davos crowd) is all in.  And NATO is definitely willing to fight to the last Ukrainian.  Maybe to the last Pole and Lithuanian. 


I know that peasants like us aren't really privy to what's going on- any info we get is filtered/redacted/curated, so I have to take everything with a grain of salt.  But we're seeing human displacement on a scale not seen since the previous world war.  Russia is literally sending people to Siberia again (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/26/ukraine-filtration-camps-00034862).  They're simply clearing out the Ukranian population in a lot of areas.


If Putin is willing to do this... he's willing to do anything.


Right now Americans are so divided that we can't even be bothered to wear a mask to protect our parents and grandparents from a nasty disease- Putin is counting on this lack of unity and lack of unified political will.  But that could all change in a single day if we see another Pearl Harbor, another Sept. 11.  Or another Gulf of Tonkin incident 🙄


And our leadership (the public face of it anyway) is a bunch of empty suits. 


I have no doubt that the U.S. and NATO will prevail in one way or another.  This isn't even remotely a symmetrical fight.  But that fight could still get uglier than any of us have seen in our lifetimes.

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